Will he stay or will he go?
A new poll came out today with Labor streaks ahead of the Howard Government (two party preferred was 55-45 to Labor). This is a substantial, election losing trend that the Government is experiencing. Is this simply Rudd's honeymoon? Personally, and hopefully, I don't think so. I think everyone has accepted Rudd as leader and it is now business as usual. The Howard Government is starting to look tired and old. Shades of 1995...
This trend has sparked the author of mumble to suggest that Howard will leave before the next election. Again, personally and hopefully, I can't see him doing it. He has to be made accountable for his actions. I wonder what the people at this site feel about the prospect of Howard cutting and running.
So what do you think? Will Howard stay or will he go?
posted by Joel MacRae @ 10:18 am
3 comments
3 Comments:
Howard's staying. For now. The speech on Australia Day looks like it will be on values (hence his BDO flag fury earlier in the week). He wouldn't want that speech overshadowed by any retirement announcement. But with a speech like that he could be looking to cement a legacy. Or it it may just be another entry in his long line of dog whistle speeches. He's probably just trying to set the agenda for the next election (so it's not all I-R and I-Raq).
Its a hard one to pick really. I think that he would be more likely to bow out gracefully (or as close to it) rather than face the consequences of his actions. If he retires, then he has the advantage of going out while he's ahead, and in the process giving the finger to all those who would see him held accountable. I think for him, the risks outweigh the benefits. He can try for another term but he becoming increasingly unpopular because of as Sam mentioned, Iraq and IR laws. Combine that with David Hicks still being uncharged, and his pathetic attempt to look like he is doing something. I think he will go, but it wont be until just before the election, is my guess. More publicity for the Lib campaign.
This also brings up who is next in line? There are rumors floating around this morning that Turnbull will be leader over Costello..
No, too close. I doubt he'd do that to his party. It wouldn't mean a certain loss (after all, Hawke won in 1983 having gained the leadership on the same day the election was called), I just can't imagine anyone would deliberately take such a big risk.
As for facing the consequences of his actions, that's really not an issue. The voting public has a mind like a goldfish when it doesn't affect them personally. Those issues were there last election but Labor is dominated by the Right and so they ignored the moral issues and tried to fight Howard on his own turf. I don't think they've learnt anything from that, either.
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