Divisive issues hurting Greens poll

In a previous post I had mentioned my fear that the industrial relations issue will favour the ALP and the Unions at the expense of the Greens. Well this view is most likely confirmed with the latest opinion poll data - particularly from Morgan who says:

"Despite continued criticism of the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms, primary support for the L-NP rose slightly (0.5%). Special Morgan Poll Qualitative Research shows economic stability is a driving force behind this. It is interesting to note that none of the L-NP supporters mentioned concerns with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms.

"Primary support for the ALP also rose (1%). This increase in support is a reflection of public reaction towards the L-NP’s proposed Industrial Relations changes.

"This latest Morgan Poll shows primary support polarising towards the major parties at the expense of the Greens and other minor parties."

Check out the summary of the Greens opinion poll data at Oz Politics - reproduced in the diagram below.

In the diagram, you can see an upturn in the Greens polls from May (when immigration was at the forefront of news) then a significant dip in the Morgan and Newspoll data for June and July (when the unions were splashed over the papers). As you can see from the rest of the data, this downturn could be considered minor fluctuations as issues come and go in the media.

However, the IR issue is not going to be an issue that will fade away. The ALP will be desperate to attach itself to thsi rollercoaster union campaign until the election.

Is it just IR though? What other issues will be in the media frequently? One that springs to mind after reading this article at online opinion on voluntary student unionism. This will be another divisive issue that will favour the ALP over the Greens - in Green heartland of young uni students (like myself). Then of course there is Telstra. It will be interesting to see how the ALP reacts - but I have a feeling it will another clear divisive issue in favour of the ALP.

Good news for the ALP but the Greens must try and be as loud and clear as possible to survive in ALP's potential revival.

I emphasise its only a potential revival - the ALP have the habit of stuffing up opportunities. For example, there are murmurs from the ALP over leadership and the religion in politics issue (a pet issue of mine) - read Wayne Swan (shadow Treasurer and lamo wannabe PM) at the Age stating he is 'perfectly relaxed about the mixing of religion and politics.'

Interesting and challenging times we Greens live in.